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China

Accuracy: 63% / 15 rated

correct predictions
7
mixed predictions
5
wrong predictions
3
open predictions
4
open predictionThe Chinese economy resumes a growth level that, while lower than its average over the last 30 years, still exceeds that of the United States and the European Union
open predictionThe next wave of electric vehicle (EV) disputes with China will be about security, not subsidies
open predictionBonus: The share of global trade denominated in renminbi continues to rise, highlighting a slow and steady trend towards dedollarisation
mixed predictionChina is found to have violated Western secondary sanctions against Russia, sparking a crisis in US-Chinese relations
mixed predictionA debt crisis emerges in Africa, spawning competitive Chinese and Western efforts to offer relief
mixed predictionThe market for critical raw materials will tighten considerably, spawning both transatlantic and Western-Chinese trade tensions as they compete for minerals
open predictionBonus: The US moves to ban Tik-Tok or force its sale to a non-Chinese company. It pressures Europeans to do the same
correct predictionThe EU anti-coercion instrument comes into being, but Chinese economic coercion continues
wrong predictionChina’s carbon emissions continue to grow rapidly
correct predictionCOP26 produces lots of hot air but not much else
mixed predictionChina tones down its ‘wolf warrior’ stance and begins a new charm offensive with Europe and America, focused on climate issues
mixed predictionThe EU, the US, and the UK all join, or apply to join, the CPTPP
correct predictionThe China-US trade war spreads to areas such as financial services and information technology
wrong predictionThe US neglects its alliance with Taiwan
wrong predictionChina applies to join the CP-TPP
correct predictionChina will be the new Russia in Europe (in terms of influence)
correct predictionUS-China relationship deteriorates (at least in trade)
correct predictionStrange bedfellows defend the world order
correct predictionNo hard landing for China

Sources

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