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EU

Accuracy: 71% / 38 rated

correct predictions
22
mixed predictions
10
wrong predictions
6
open predictions
10
open predictionUnder the new Polish government, Poland emerges as the leading EU state on policy towards Russia and defence issues
open predictionThe UK Labour party sweeps to power on the back of a landslide election victory. The new prime minister begins an effort to bring the United Kingdom closer to the EU, although he stops short of rejoining the EU or single market
open predictionThe European Parliament elections will see the centrist parties (EPP, S&D, and RE) maintain a slender majority in spite of a sharp shift to the right with populist anti-immigrant parties gaining and centre-left and green parties losing seats across the EU
open predictionThe next wave of electric vehicle (EV) disputes with China will be about security, not subsidies
open predictionThe Ukraine conflict becomes a European rather than a global war
open predictionThe US government decides it has the legal authority to seize Russian sovereign assets and urges various EU member states to do the same. They fail to do so
open predictionA popular ‘greenlash’ becomes a force in European politics and both a cause and a consequence of a shift to the right in European national elections
correct predictionEuropean and Western unity on the need to isolate and punish Russia remains strong – but the rest of the world loses its patience with the West
correct predictionThe Polish Law and Justice party loses the parliamentary election. The new government settles Polish disputes with the European Union and Germany
correct predictionEnergy prices see no further major increases and the EU does not experience any serious energy shortages, even as it further decouples its energy system from Russia
mixed predictionA debt crisis emerges in Africa, spawning competitive Chinese and Western efforts to offer relief
mixed predictionThe market for critical raw materials will tighten considerably, spawning both transatlantic and Western-Chinese trade tensions as they compete for minerals
open predictionBonus: The US moves to ban Tik-Tok or force its sale to a non-Chinese company. It pressures Europeans to do the same
correct predictionEmmanuel Macron wins the French presidential election and uses his new mandate to ‘relaunch’ Europe
correct predictionThe EU anti-coercion instrument comes into being, but Chinese economic coercion continues
mixed predictionProtests against high energy prices and the European Green Deal break out across the EU
wrong predictionHungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban loses the Hungarian election, but claims he won
correct predictionThe US and Iran fail to return to the Iran deal or negotiate a successor agreement, but the effort continues
correct predictionEurope’s push for strategic autonomy helps reconstruct a more balanced transatlantic relationship
correct predictionCOP26 produces lots of hot air but not much else
mixed predictionThe EU steps up its struggle with Poland and Hungary, and gains concessions on rule of law issues
mixed predictionChina tones down its ‘wolf warrior’ stance and begins a new charm offensive with Europe and America, focused on climate issues
mixed predictionEurope and North America experience a strong post-coronavirus economic recovery, but Russia, Africa, and Latin America lag far behind both in the recovery and in controlling the virus
mixed predictionThe EU, the US, and the UK all join, or apply to join, the CPTPP
correct predictionThe EU decouples from US policy on the Middle East and north Africa
mixed predictionThe European Green Deal becomes the new refugee crisis
wrong predictionZelensky moves ahead of Europe in resolving the Donbas conflict
open predictionBonus: The UK fails to complete a trade deal with the EU (but no one cares much)
correct predictionEurope considers a digital tax
mixed predictionPopulists begin a double movement
open predictionBonus: Brexit neither succeeds or fails
correct predictionThere will be a Brexit deal (but will be blown apart in 2019 or 2020)
correct predictionChina will be the new Russia in Europe (in terms of influence)
mixed predictionBattle between globalists and nationalists rises to European level
correct predictionStrange bedfellows defend the world order
correct predictionThe EU-Turkey refugee deal holds
correct predictionThe US abandons the Iran deal while the EU struggles to maintain it
correct predictionThe marginalization of the EU Periphery
correct predictionEurope finally gets serious about defence
correct predictionThe end of the two state solution
wrong predictionBrexit negotiations go nowhere
correct predictionHardening of attitudes to refugees
correct predictionEuropean solidarity erodes
correct predictionEurope’s mainstream Canutes
correct predictionThe rise and rise of geo-economics…
wrong predictionThe slow erosion of consensus on Russia
wrong predictionBritain re-enters Europe
wrong predictionTurkey’s return to the West

Sources

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