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Accuracy: 50% / 17 rated

correct predictions
mixed predictions
wrong predictions
open predictions
open predictionUnder the new Polish government, Poland emerges as the leading EU state on policy towards Russia and defence issues
open predictionThe US government decides it has the legal authority to seize Russian sovereign assets and urges various EU member states to do the same. They fail to do so
correct predictionThe war in Ukraine continues without any formal settlement
correct predictionEuropean and Western unity on the need to isolate and punish Russia remains strong – but the rest of the world loses its patience with the West
correct predictionEnergy prices see no further major increases and the EU does not experience any serious energy shortages, even as it further decouples its energy system from Russia
mixed predictionChina is found to have violated Western secondary sanctions against Russia, sparking a crisis in US-Chinese relations
mixed predictionThe US opens talks with Russia on the European security order, but there is no large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine
correct predictionLukashenka stubbornly clings to power but loses most of his autonomy to Russia
mixed predictionEurope and North America experience a strong post-coronavirus economic recovery, but Russia, Africa, and Latin America lag far behind both in the recovery and in controlling the virus
mixed predictionPutin attends the G7 in the US
mixed predictionSuccession becomes a dominant theme in Russia, Turkey, and the US
wrong predictionZelensky moves ahead of Europe in resolving the Donbas conflict
mixed predictionThe Ukraine crisis flares up
correct predictionThe Syrian Civil War fails to end
wrong predictionRussia’s triumphant return to the West
mixed prediction[Rise of geo-economics] …Except in Russia
wrong predictionThe proxy war between Russia and the US in Syria intensifies
wrong predictionThe slow erosion of consensus on Russia
wrong predictionTurkey’s return to the West