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Accuracy: 74% / 31 rated

correct predictions
mixed predictions
wrong predictions
open predictions
open predictionJoe Biden wins the 2024 US presidential election. Donald Trump refuses to concede, but there is no major outbreak of violence
open predictionThe next wave of electric vehicle (EV) disputes with China will be about security, not subsidies
open predictionThe Ukraine conflict becomes a European rather than a global war
open predictionThe US government decides it has the legal authority to seize Russian sovereign assets and urges various EU member states to do the same. They fail to do so
open predictionBonus: The share of global trade denominated in renminbi continues to rise, highlighting a slow and steady trend towards dedollarisation
correct predictionEuropean and Western unity on the need to isolate and punish Russia remains strong – but the rest of the world loses its patience with the West
correct predictionDonald Trump’s legal problems fail to put him in jail. He remains obnoxious and the front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination
mixed predictionChina is found to have violated Western secondary sanctions against Russia, sparking a crisis in US-Chinese relations
mixed predictionA debt crisis emerges in Africa, spawning competitive Chinese and Western efforts to offer relief
mixed predictionThe market for critical raw materials will tighten considerably, spawning both transatlantic and Western-Chinese trade tensions as they compete for minerals
open predictionBonus: The US moves to ban Tik-Tok or force its sale to a non-Chinese company. It pressures Europeans to do the same
correct predictionThe Democrats lose at least one house of the US Congress in the November mid-term elections
correct predictionNuclear talks with Iran founder, while the country’s nuclear programme progresses
mixed predictionThe US opens talks with Russia on the European security order, but there is no large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine
wrong predictionChina’s carbon emissions continue to grow rapidly
open predictionBonus: Private space flight suffers its first fatal accident
correct predictionBiden fails to usher in a period of bipartisan comity in Washington
correct predictionThe US and Iran fail to return to the Iran deal or negotiate a successor agreement, but the effort continues
correct predictionEurope’s push for strategic autonomy helps reconstruct a more balanced transatlantic relationship
correct predictionThe US-UK fail to conclude a trade deal, but continue to assert that they have a special relationship
correct predictionCOP26 produces lots of hot air but not much else
mixed predictionChina tones down its ‘wolf warrior’ stance and begins a new charm offensive with Europe and America, focused on climate issues
mixed predictionEurope and North America experience a strong post-coronavirus economic recovery, but Russia, Africa, and Latin America lag far behind both in the recovery and in controlling the virus
mixed predictionThe EU, the US, and the UK all join, or apply to join, the CPTPP
open predictionBonus: Trump gets his Twitter account back
correct predictionThe China-US trade war spreads to areas such as financial services and information technology
mixed predictionTrump wins re-election but loses the popular vote by a bigger margin than in 2016
mixed predictionPutin attends the G7 in the US
wrong predictionThe US neglects its alliance with Taiwan
correct predictionTrump takes control of US foreign policy
correct predictionThe Democratic House impeaches Trump
correct predictionThe WTO de facto collapses
mixed predictionThe North Korea “de-nuclearisation” process breaks down
correct predictionRepublicans will lose at least one house in midterm elections
correct predictionUS-China relationship deteriorates (at least in trade)
correct predictionThe US abandons the Iran deal while the EU struggles to maintain it
correct predictionThe end of the two state solution
correct prediction…As the US becomes Germany
wrong predictionThe proxy war between Russia and the US in Syria intensifies