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2024
12 open predictions
open predictionThe Chinese economy resumes a growth level that, while lower than its average over the last 30 years, still exceeds that of the United States and the European Union
open predictionJoe Biden wins the 2024 US presidential election. Donald Trump refuses to concede, but there is no major outbreak of violence
open predictionThe Gaza war ends, in the sense that most of the violence stops, but no settlement or peace process is put in place. Gaza remains isolated
open predictionUnder the new Polish government, Poland emerges as the leading EU state on policy towards Russia and defence issues
open predictionThe UK Labour party sweeps to power on the back of a landslide election victory. The new prime minister begins an effort to bring the United Kingdom closer to the EU, although he stops short of rejoining the EU or single market
open predictionThe European Parliament elections will see the centrist parties (EPP, S&D, and RE) maintain a slender majority in spite of a sharp shift to the right with populist anti-immigrant parties gaining and centre-left and green parties losing seats across the EU
open predictionThe next wave of electric vehicle (EV) disputes with China will be about security, not subsidies
open predictionThe Ukraine conflict becomes a European rather than a global war
open predictionThe US government decides it has the legal authority to seize Russian sovereign assets and urges various EU member states to do the same. They fail to do so
open predictionA popular ‘greenlash’ becomes a force in European politics and both a cause and a consequence of a shift to the right in European national elections
open predictionBonus: Ozempic and similar drugs emerge in 2024 as a more important technological development in terms of its potential near-term impact on economic growth than AI
open predictionBonus: The share of global trade denominated in renminbi continues to rise, highlighting a slow and steady trend towards dedollarisation

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